July 3, 2010

Understanding How California Foreclosures Affect Broader Economic Activity

California’s economy and how California foreclosures affect it as well as the broader nationwide economy should be studied, if only to figure out the existing recession and what touched it off. This is important because anything that takes place in California eventually makes its way east, as was demonstrated when California real estate helped to touch off a collapse in real estate markets around the country.

There seem to have been two places where the current recession was able to draw its strength from; Wall Street and California. Whether or not the collapse in markets on Wall Street could have happened without the problem in California real estate markets becoming so acute is a matter for debate. Obviously, though, California was at least the warning sign that many people chose to ignore at first.

For least a few years before the markets took their dive, California had been experiencing issues with its housing markets. Many investors, though, chose to ignore the issues with California, as well as Florida and Arizona, which both began experiencing similar issues, though almost all such warning signs were ignored due to irrational exuberance in the real estate markets, it looks like.

Out in the Golden State, real estate price declines had been building for about 36 months prior to late 2008. California property values at their lowest point and then continued to drop even more, though they lately seem to be stabilizing and even climbing slightly. This slight climb, though, is extremely fragile and susceptible to collapse with any bad news California may end up having to confront.

CA foreclosures, then, might be looked at as another sort of warning sign because there are at least six California cities in the top 10 cities across the country in terms of their own rates of foreclosure. In fact, three states — Arizona, Florida and California — are contributing 44% of the total number of foreclosures in the country as of late.

Put everything together in terms of what was going out in California (which had been dealing with building issues for a decade or more when it comes to its property inventory) along with the possible effects of Proposition 13 — which may have intensified the problem — and one begins to understand how CA foreclosures can affect the broader economy. At the least, the rate scares investment off.

The reason this is so is because investors in the broader markets as well as the housing market are very jumpy at present and aren’t entirely sure that the country has reached bottom, at least in terms of home prices. They are reluctant to jump back into housing markets without at least an even chance of making back what they’ve put into it over the long run. This tends to depress markets, truth be told.

Because of all this, it’s fairly certain that California foreclosures affect California economic activity. Not only that, but they tend to also spill over into the broader economy to at least a small extent. When rates in California begin, at last, to decline and then stabilize it might be that investment around the country will finally increase as people jump back into the housing market in a significant manner.

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